Independent geologist announces the completion of Niobrara-By-The-Numbers, a comprehensive review of the Niobrara play in the Denver-Cheyenne basin. This report includes an estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) determination for 201 horizontal wells drilled since the famous “Jake” well. It includes a concise summary of the current status of the play and an overview of the geologic controls which coincide with economically successful wells. It also describes the two wells in the play which provided the best return on investment and offers a potential alternative roadmap to future successes in the Niobrara.
The report indicates that there are a surprising number of wells in the Niobrara play that will never reach payout; that a large percentage of the wells seem destined to fail economically. While there are numerous excellent wells that demonstrate the real potential of this play, success outside of Wattenberg remains elusive. This report offers some approaches for optimal success in this play, based on these Numbers.
The implications of the extreme variability in production levels observed in these wells are discussed, both from an economic perspective and a geologic perspective. The discrepancy between the good and the bad wells also raises questions regarding the effectiveness of multi-stage fracking in the Niobrara. These questions are articulated along with a subsequent discussion. For more information visit: Niobrara-By-The-Numbers.